Motor Lublin 1-0 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.95
Over 2.5
57%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.26
6+ Goals
13%
11.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.26 — our 27% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.69
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
13%
5.71
X/2
12%
5.85
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
15%
3.83
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.7pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -18%
1.49/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.20
+6% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -41%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-2 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
12.04.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-2 HT 2-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
29.09.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-0
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.92 xG 0.49
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 8
375 Passes 235
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Arka Gdynia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motor Lublin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 60% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 40%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.92 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Motor Lublin's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.67 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Arka Gdynia?

Motor Lublin 1-0 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 41%, draw 24%, Arka Gdynia 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motor Lublin) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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