Bala Town 2-2 Newtown — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.51
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 35% vs market 32.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
20%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.2pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Newtown EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -6%
1.47/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.41
-8% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newtown
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
24.02.2024 Newtown Newtown 1-5 HT 1-4 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
30.12.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
30.09.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
05.05.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 2-4 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.04.2023 Bala Town Bala Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bala Town
2-2
AWAY Newtown
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Newtown
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bala Town and Newtown shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Bala Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bala Town had 53% of the ball to Newtown's 47%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bala Town and 1.67 for Newtown.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Newtown?

Bala Town 2-2 Newtown in the Wales - Premier League on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Newtown?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bala Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 41%, draw 26%, Newtown 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bala Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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