Ashton United 1-3 Lancaster City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ashton United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lancaster City EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.96/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.43
+23% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ashton United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lancaster City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Ashton United Ashton United 2-1 HT 2-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
19.10.2024 Lancaster City Lancaster City 2-2 HT 0-2 Ashton United Ashton United İNGNLP
05.03.2024 Ashton United Ashton United 5-0 HT 1-0 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
14.11.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 2-1 HT 1-0 Ashton United Ashton United İNGNLP
30.09.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 0-2 HT 0-0 Ashton United Ashton United FAK
15.04.2023 Ashton United Ashton United 2-4 HT 1-3 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ashton United
1-3
AWAY Lancaster City
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ashton United vs Lancaster City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lancaster City beat Ashton United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Lancaster City made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ashton United had 52% of the ball to Lancaster City's 48%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ashton United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Ashton United and 1.50 for Lancaster City.

What was the final score of Ashton United vs Lancaster City?

Ashton United 1-3 Lancaster City in the England - Non League Premier on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ashton United vs Lancaster City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ashton United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ashton United 39%, draw 27%, Lancaster City 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ashton United) ✗ Under 2.5
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