Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Sep 2025

Burnley
1-1 HT 1-1
Nottingham Forest
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 32% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.11
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
10%
6.73
X/2
13%
4.76
X/X
14%
4.25
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.0
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
1.44/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.05
-9% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
20.5 Crosses 9.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.10 xG 0.97
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
433 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Burnley Burnley 1-2 HT 0-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
18.09.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
30.08.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
23.02.2016 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
20.10.2015 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
22.02.2014 Burnley Burnley 3-1 HT 3-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
1-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
0.90 xG 1.10
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
269 Passes 564
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
23 Box Touches 29
26 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley and Nottingham Forest couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nottingham Forest at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Burnley had 37% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 63%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.90 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burnley and 0.83 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?

Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Burnley 30%, draw 28%, Nottingham Forest 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Under 2.5
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