Villarreal 2-1 Osasuna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Sep 2025

Villarreal
2-1 HT 0-1
Osasuna
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Villarreal vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
16%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
16.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
14%
4.02
X/2
6%
9.68
X/X
10%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
24.5
2/2
6%
8.2
2/X
6%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.5 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
56%
+7.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.0pp
16%
Away Win
19%
-3.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Osasuna EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.85/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.27
+22% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 77%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.4 Crosses 19.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Villarreal vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Osasuna
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.03 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
366 Passes 335
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
03.05.2025 Villarreal Villarreal 4-2 HT 3-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
24.11.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 2-2 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
25.05.2024 Osasuna Osasuna 1-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
26.11.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.03.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.10.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Villarreal 2-1 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
2-1
AWAY Osasuna
2.55 xG 1.80
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
444 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
41 Box Touches 16
31 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Osasuna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Osasuna 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Villarreal had 66% of the ball to Osasuna's 34%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 2.55 to 1.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Osasuna.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Osasuna?

Villarreal 2-1 Osasuna in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Osasuna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 63%, draw 21%, Osasuna 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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