Naxara 1-4 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxara EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxara
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Gernika
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
24.03.2024 Naxara Naxara 2-1 HT 2-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
12.11.2023 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 1-1 Naxara Naxara İS4
01.05.2022 Gernika Gernika 3-2 HT 2-1 Naxara Naxara İS4
12.12.2021 Naxara Naxara 0-1 HT 0-1 Gernika Gernika İS4
POST-MATCH Naxara vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika swept aside Naxara 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Naxara at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gernika led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Naxara and 1.50 for Gernika.

What was the final score of Naxara vs Gernika?

Naxara 1-4 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxara vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naxara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Naxara 44%, draw 26%, Gernika 31%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naxara), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naxara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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