Naxara 2-1 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.8pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxara EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.05/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.21
-3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxara
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Gernika
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 1-1 Naxara Naxara İS4
01.05.2022 Gernika Gernika 3-2 HT 2-1 Naxara Naxara İS4
12.12.2021 Naxara Naxara 0-1 HT 0-1 Gernika Gernika İS4
POST-MATCH Naxara vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxara nicked a narrow win over Gernika 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Naxara made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gernika led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Naxara and 1.67 for Gernika.

What was the final score of Naxara vs Gernika?

Naxara 2-1 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxara vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naxara win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Naxara 39%, draw 25%, Gernika 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naxara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naxara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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