Tokyo Verdy 4-2 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.36
Over 2.5
34%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.4
No
63%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
1.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
11%
6.97
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
11%
4.44
X/2
13%
6.58
X/X
19%
3.15
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
11%
5.96
2/X
4%
16.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
32%
-3.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
70%
-4.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
30%
+4.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
38%
-0.3pp
63%
BTTS No
62%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.07/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.39
+6% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.6 Crosses 19.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 0.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
336 Passes 245
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
26.08.2023 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-3 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
11.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
23.10.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
01.05.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 0-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
09.10.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-2 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
4-2
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.74 xG 0.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
191 Passes 265
61% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy beat Fagiano Okayama 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tokyo Verdy as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 44% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 56%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.74 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.33 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama?

Tokyo Verdy 4-2 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 43%, draw 29%, Fagiano Okayama 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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