Nagoya Grampus 3-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.35
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
24%
4.2
X/2
6%
8.41
X/X
11%
4.87
2/1
9%
23.65
2/2
12%
6.75
2/X
8%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.60/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.39
-29% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.7 Crosses 16.4
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 1.21
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
299 Passes 347
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 HT 2-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
24.08.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
16.06.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
11.11.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
23.04.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-2 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.07.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
2.19 xG 2.67
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
252 Passes 476
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus beat Shonan Bellmare 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nagoya Grampus as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 37% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 63%, shots finished 13-23, expected goals 2.19 to 2.67 — on chances, Shonan Bellmare could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.17 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare?

Nagoya Grampus 3-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 53%, draw 24%, Shonan Bellmare 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5
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