Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.55
No
37%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.69
1/2
7%
24.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
13%
5.92
X/2
13%
5.66
X/X
9%
5.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
17%
3.44
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.1pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.1pp
63%
BTTS Yes
60%
+2.4pp
37%
BTTS No
40%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.39/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.14
+1% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
20.6 Crosses 14.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.95 xG 0.96
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
415 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
28.09.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
03.04.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.08.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
23.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
08.10.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-1
AWAY Kashiwa Reysol
1.72 xG 0.86
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 11
312 Passes 540
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka and Kashiwa Reysol shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (40% / 23% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (63%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 39% of the ball to Kashiwa Reysol's 61%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.72 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.67 for Kashiwa Reysol.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan - J1 League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 40%, draw 23%, Kashiwa Reysol 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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