Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 3 Apr 2024

Kashiwa Reysol
1-1 HT 1-1
Cerezo Osaka
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.59
Over 2.5
36%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.96
No
60%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.45
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.85
6+ Goals
6%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.45 — our 37% vs market 34.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.32
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.1
X/1
20%
4.64
X/2
10%
6.11
X/X
10%
3.87
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
15%
4.88
2/X
9%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.8pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kashiwa Reysol v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.15/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.28
-10% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.5 Crosses 16.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.8

Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.00 xG 1.07
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 458
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
23.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
08.10.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.04.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
07.11.2021 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
27.02.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.82 xG 1.39
39% Ball Possession 61%
23 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
238 Passes 411
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol and Cerezo Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 39% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 61%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 1.82 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 0.67 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 41%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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