Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.95
6+ Goals
7%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.49
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
19%
5.0
X/2
5%
6.25
X/X
14%
3.63
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
19%
4.94
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+2.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 33%
-13% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.28/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.29
-16% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.9 Crosses 17.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.01 xG 0.89
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
276 Passes 428
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
03.04.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.08.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
23.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
08.10.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.04.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.35 xG 0.76
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
506 Passes 338
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol edged past Cerezo Osaka 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Kashiwa Reysol found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 58% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 42%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.35 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 0.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka?

Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 39%, draw 30%, Cerezo Osaka 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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