FC Tokyo 3-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.41
Over 2.5
37%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
6.31
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.68
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
15%
5.67
X/2
18%
5.09
X/X
18%
3.28
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
10%
3.97
2/X
9%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.0pp
33%
Draw
32%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
67%
-4.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
33%
+4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.8pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 39%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -17%
1.26/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.24
+3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
326 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
17.3 Crosses 16.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
426 Passes 253
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 4-1 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
15.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
24.06.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.03.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.10.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
20.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
3-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
2.50 xG 1.33
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
250 Passes 537
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo beat Nagoya Grampus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 32% — and on the day FC Tokyo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 34% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 66%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.50 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.00 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?

FC Tokyo 3-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 35%, draw 33%, Nagoya Grampus 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tokyo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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