Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
36%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.44
Over 2.5
33%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.29
No
64%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
6.29
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.05
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.1
X/1
18%
4.34
X/2
10%
7.1
X/X
14%
3.37
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2 EV+ ✓
19%
6.42
2/X
8%
16.2
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.42 — our 19% vs market 11.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-7.9pp
27%
Draw
31%
-4.3pp
36%
Away Win
24%
+12.2pp
67%
Under 2.5
66%
+1.5pp
33%
Over 2.5
34%
-1.5pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.2pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.41/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.28
+19% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
23.1 Crosses 14.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 0.86
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
240 Passes 383
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
19.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 5-0 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
09.07.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
13.05.2023 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
18.09.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 1-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
20.03.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-1 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
0-1
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
0.58 xG 0.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
284 Passes 266
69% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy edged past Machida Zelvia 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Tokyo Verdy made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 52% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 48%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.58 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.00 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?

Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 37%, draw 27%, Tokyo Verdy 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Machida Zelvia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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