Machida Zelvia 5-0 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.6
Over 2.5
50%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.47
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
4.83
6+ Goals
10%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.85
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
10%
4.21
X/2
14%
7.15
X/X
13%
3.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
2/2
8%
5.96
2/X
7%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 29%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.49/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.36
+3% / +127% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 73%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
22.5 Crosses 15.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
259 Passes 419
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.07.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
13.05.2023 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
18.09.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 1-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
20.03.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-1 HT 1-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
26.09.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 0-1 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
14.03.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-2 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
5-0
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
2.22 xG 0.34
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
227 Passes 375
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
35 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia swept aside Tokyo Verdy 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 41% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 59%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.22 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.33 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?

Machida Zelvia 5-0 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 42%, draw 28%, Tokyo Verdy 30%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ BTTS Yes
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