Gamba Osaka 3-1 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.41
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.97
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
16%
5.87
X/2
13%
5.32
X/X
14%
4.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
2/2
13%
3.46
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -23%
1.33/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.29
-4% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 84%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
17.0 Crosses 15.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.78 xG 1.99
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
278 Passes 583
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.08.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-4 HT 1-3 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
09.04.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
09.07.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-0 HT 4-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
06.03.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-2 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
27.11.2021 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 4-1 HT 2-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
08.05.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
3-1
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.93 xG 1.82
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
328 Passes 526
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka saw off Kawasaki Frontale 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Gamba Osaka made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 40% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 60%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.93 to 1.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Kawasaki Frontale.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gamba Osaka and 2.50 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Gamba Osaka 3-1 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 38%, draw 28%, Kawasaki Frontale 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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