Nagoya Grampus 3-1 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
39%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.43
6+ Goals
8%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.54
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
9%
4.99
X/2
13%
5.78
X/X
12%
4.01
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
19%
4.35
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
39%
Away Win
32%
+7.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.5pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.20/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.09
-14% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 77%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
15.1 Crosses 13.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 0.94
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
262 Passes 433
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.06.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.03.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.10.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
20.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
10.10.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
06.10.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3-1
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.82 xG 0.99
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
181 Passes 465
64% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus saw off FC Tokyo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 33% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 67%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.82 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.00 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo?

Nagoya Grampus 3-1 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 34%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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