FC Tokyo 4-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.98
6+ Goals
7%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.34
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
11%
5.63
X/2
13%
5.06
X/X
16%
3.73
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.74
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.7pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.9pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.20/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.17
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
16.4 Crosses 16.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 1.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
439 Passes 246
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
24.06.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.03.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.10.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
20.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
10.10.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
4-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
2.71 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
360 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo ran out comfortable winners over Nagoya Grampus 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; FC Tokyo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 54% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.71 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.00 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?

FC Tokyo 4-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 32%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 39%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
14 Sep 2024
08:00 Consadole Sapporo vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →
12:00 Kashima Antlers vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
12:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
13:00 Gamba Osaka vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
13:00 Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →
13:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Jubilo Iwata Analysis →