Albirex Niigata 3-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
39%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.54
6+ Goals
12%
14.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.04
1/2
11%
34.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
13%
4.87
X/2
9%
6.65
X/X
11%
4.53
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
19%
4.72
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
43%
-9.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+9.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.8pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
1.03/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.40
-1% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
19.6 Crosses 16.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 2.01
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
562 Passes 263
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
12.08.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
03.06.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.07.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
27.02.2016 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
07.11.2015 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
3-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
2.33 xG 0.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 440
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata saw off Shonan Bellmare 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Albirex Niigata made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 45% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 55%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.33 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shonan Bellmare led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.67 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Albirex Niigata 3-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 34%, draw 27%, Shonan Bellmare 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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