Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.45
Over 2.5
36%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
14%
6.21
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.01
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.75
X/1
8%
5.8
X/2
15%
4.49
X/X
18%
3.52
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.52
2/X
6%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.9pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
65%
-1.1pp
36%
Over 2.5
35%
+1.1pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.7pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.72
-26% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +122%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
16.7 Crosses 22.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.62 xG 0.21
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
226 Passes 327
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
22.06.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
21.10.2020 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
13.09.2020 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 2-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
0-3
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.51 xG 0.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
241 Passes 326
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia ran out comfortable winners over Avispa Fukuoka 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (64%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 44% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 56%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.51 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.33 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia?

Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 28%, draw 29%, Machida Zelvia 43%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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