Cruz Azul 3-2 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.98
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 28% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +15%
1.86/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.48
+0% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
22.7 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.59 xG 0.58
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
421 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.01.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
24.10.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
20.01.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.11.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
26.02.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
03.09.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-2 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
3-2
AWAY FC Juarez
1.42 xG 1.42
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
437 Passes 252
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul squeezed past FC Juarez 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 61% of the ball to FC Juarez's 39%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.42 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.50 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez?

Cruz Azul 3-2 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 61%, draw 21%, FC Juarez 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
20 Sep 2025
04:00 Necaxa vs Puebla Analysis →
06:00 Mazatlan vs Atlas Analysis →
06:05 Tijuana vs Leon Analysis →