Necaxa 1-0 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.1pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -23%
1.81/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.65
+13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.1 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Puebla
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.04.2025 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
14.07.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 4-1 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.01.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
15.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
17.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-0
AWAY Puebla
0.85 xG 0.87
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
258 Passes 331
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa edged past Puebla 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 46% of the ball to Puebla's 54%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.85 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Necaxa and 1.17 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Puebla?

Necaxa 1-0 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 52%, draw 24%, Puebla 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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