FC Castrense 0-5 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
12.23
Draw
12%
8.11
Away
69%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.61
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
4%
X/2
29%
X/X
3%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
5%
+13.3pp
12%
Draw
9%
+3.0pp
69%
Away Win
86%
-16.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Castrense EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 91%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
225 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Castrense
0-5
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 26
1 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Castrense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa cruised past FC Castrense 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, FC Castrense had 32% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 68%, shots finished 4-26.

What was the final score of FC Castrense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

FC Castrense 0-5 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - Cup on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Castrense vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split FC Castrense 19%, draw 12%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 69%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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