Vitoria De Sernache 1-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
17%
3.94
Away
62%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.91
Over 2.5
61%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.88
No
41%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
44%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.8pp
17%
Draw
22%
-5.0pp
62%
Away Win
58%
+3.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
48%
-9.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
52%
+9.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
49%
+9.8pp
41%
BTTS No
51%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria De Sernache EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 62%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
0.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.44/1.43
-100% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -41%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
175 · 60% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
POST-MATCH Vitoria De Sernache vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense nicked a narrow win over Vitoria De Sernache 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portimonense as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

What was the final score of Vitoria De Sernache vs Portimonense?

Vitoria De Sernache 1-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - Cup on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria De Sernache vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Vitoria De Sernache 21%, draw 17%, Portimonense 62%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portimonense), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portimonense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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