Makhachkala 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.67
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.39
6+ Goals
7%
22.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 33% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.2
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
13%
6.67
X/2
20%
4.73
X/X
13%
4.02
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.06
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+1.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 46%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
0.95/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.45
+3% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
18.8 Crosses 17.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Makhachkala
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.71 xG 1.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
248 Passes 392
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
11.03.2025 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUSK
28.02.2025 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
10.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 HT 1-0 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Makhachkala
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.98 xG 0.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
248 Passes 240
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
15 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Makhachkala and Lokomotiv Moscow couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Makhachkala had 50% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 50%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.98 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Makhachkala and 1.67 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Makhachkala 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Makhachkala 31%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moscow 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
20 Sep 2025
14:30 Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Akhmat Grozny Analysis →
16:45 Akron vs Rubin Kazan Analysis →