Melilla 1-2 Union Sur Yaiza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 20 Oct 2024

Melilla
1-2
Union Sur Yaiza
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division RFEF – 2024/2025

Melilla vs Union Sur Yaiza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.48
Over
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
36%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.0pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melilla v Union Sur Yaiza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melilla The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza The Market 24%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.94/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.00
-33% / +123% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
335 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
POST-MATCH Melilla vs Union Sur Yaiza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Sur Yaiza edged past Melilla 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Melilla at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Melilla vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Melilla 1-2 Union Sur Yaiza in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melilla vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melilla win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Melilla 44%, draw 29%, Union Sur Yaiza 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melilla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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