UCAM Murcia 1-1 Villanovense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.45
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.54
Over
47%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.75
No
53%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
48%
4-5
15%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
UCAM Murcia win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
32%
+15.0pp
53%
BTTS No
68%
-15.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCAM Murcia The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Villanovense The Market 15%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.71/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.00
+1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +72%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCAM Murcia
1-1
AWAY Villanovense
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
POST-MATCH UCAM Murcia vs Villanovense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCAM Murcia and Villanovense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had UCAM Murcia at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, UCAM Murcia had 62% of the ball to Villanovense's 38%, shots finished 17-8.

What was the final score of UCAM Murcia vs Villanovense?

UCAM Murcia 1-1 Villanovense in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCAM Murcia vs Villanovense?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCAM Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split UCAM Murcia 58%, draw 25%, Villanovense 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (UCAM Murcia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UCAM Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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