Gubbio 0-1 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
68%
1.62
Over
32%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2.61
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
13%
4.51
6+
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.61 — our 39% vs market 32.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.2pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-1.2pp
68%
Under 2.5
58%
+9.8pp
32%
Over 2.5
42%
-9.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.0pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera The Market 26%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
0.75/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.06
-48% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
317 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Pontedera
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.04.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
09.12.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 2-1 HT 2-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
14.05.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 1-1 HT 0-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
23.04.2023 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 1-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.12.2022 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
16.02.2022 Pontedera Pontedera 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
0-1
AWAY Pontedera
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera nicked a narrow win over Gubbio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Gubbio at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gubbio had 60% of the ball to Pontedera's 40%, shots finished 16-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gubbio and 0.67 for Pontedera.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Pontedera?

Gubbio 0-1 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 47%, draw 32%, Pontedera 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gubbio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gubbio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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