CD Real Sociedad 1-4 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
29%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+3.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.27/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.97
+35% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
252 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Real Sociedad
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Motagua
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
11.08.2024 Motagua Motagua 3-1 HT 1-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
26.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 3-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
29.02.2024 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 1-3 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
13.11.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 3-2 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
17.09.2023 Motagua Motagua 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
17.04.2023 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 2-1 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
POST-MATCH CD Real Sociedad vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua cruised past CD Real Sociedad 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CD Real Sociedad and 2.17 for Motagua.

What was the final score of CD Real Sociedad vs Motagua?

CD Real Sociedad 1-4 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Real Sociedad vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split CD Real Sociedad 25%, draw 27%, Motagua 48%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ BTTS Yes
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