Valmiera / BSS 0-1 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.4pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 22%
-17% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +15%
1.85/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.38
-10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +62%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
32.2 Crosses 22.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Liepaja
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.86 xG 0.66
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
427 Passes 162
83% Pass Accuracy 63%
36 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
24.05.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-3 HT 0-2 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
14.04.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
17.09.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-4 HT 0-2 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
29.06.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
27.05.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-2 HT 1-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
0-1
AWAY Liepaja
1.93 xG 0.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
367 Passes 237
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 11
37 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja edged past Valmiera / BSS 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Valmiera / BSS at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 60% of the ball to Liepaja's 40%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.93 to 0.43 — the balance of chances actually favoured Valmiera / BSS.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 0.67 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja?

Valmiera / BSS 0-1 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 49%, draw 26%, Liepaja 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✗ BTTS Yes
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