Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Oct 2024

Pachuca
0-2 HT 0-2
Guadalajara
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pachuca vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.12
+7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 81%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.7 Crosses 16.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Pachuca vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.94 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 Passes 303
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
31.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.01.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.09.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
0-2
AWAY Guadalajara
1.01 xG 0.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 6
396 Passes 317
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara beat Pachuca 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Guadalajara found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pachuca had 54% of the ball to Guadalajara's 46%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 1.01 to 0.34 — on chances, Pachuca could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Pachuca and 0.67 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Guadalajara?

Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 39%, draw 29%, Guadalajara 32%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Pachuca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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