Monterrey 4-2 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.05
6+ Goals
10%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.17/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.13
-18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
263 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
15.5 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.18
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
333 Passes 364
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
13.05.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
10.05.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-2 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
14.04.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-3 HT 1-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
24.09.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
09.08.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey CONLK
21.05.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
4-2
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.75 xG 2.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
245 Passes 391
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 23
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey beat Tigres UANL 4-2. Half-time: 3-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Monterrey made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monterrey had 44% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 56%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 1.75 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monterrey and 1.50 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

Monterrey 4-2 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 34%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 39%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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