Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 20 Oct 2025

📅20/10/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 36%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.26/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.56
-41% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -21%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
236 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
23.1 Crosses 18.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.80
1.10 xG 1.90
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
201 Passes 316
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
15.06.2025 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-2 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
17.09.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
16.04.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-3 HT 1-3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
13.08.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
13.03.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 4-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0-1
AWAY Sporting Cristal
0.45 xG 2.49
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
218 Passes 424
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sporting Cristal found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 37% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 63%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.45 to 2.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Cristal's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.80 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?

Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 20/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 40%, draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ BTTS Yes
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