Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Garcilaso v Sporting Cristal — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Deportivo Garcilaso
PER
4-4
HT 0-1
Sporting Cristal
PER
Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sporting Cristal — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting Cristal nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sporting Cristal found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 37% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 63%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 0.45 to 2.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Cristal's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.80 for Sporting Cristal.
What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?
Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 20/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 40%, draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.