Bragantino 1-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Nov 2024

Bragantino
1-1 HT 1-1
Sao Paulo
📅20/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bragantino vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
4.89
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.49 — our 36% vs market 34.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.98
X/2
13%
6.06
X/X
15%
3.79
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
13%
4.69
2/X
6%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bragantino v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.24/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.01
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 81%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.3 Crosses 17.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Bragantino vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.02 xG 2.02
42% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
230 Passes 355
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
09.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
09.02.2023 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRPL1
14.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
23.04.2022 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
04.02.2022 Bragantino 4-3 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BREPAU

Bragantino 1-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.76 xG 0.42
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
276 Passes 376
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino and Sao Paulo shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Bragantino had 43% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 57%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.76 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bragantino and 1.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Sao Paulo?

Bragantino 1-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 38%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bragantino), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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