Corinthians 2-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Nov 2024

Corinthians
2-1 HT 2-1
Cruzeiro
📅20/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
17.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.4
X/1
27%
3.5
X/2
10%
12.6
X/X
11%
5.2
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
5%
11.0
2/X
8%
19.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
63%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Corinthians v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 18%
+7% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.66/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.42
+23% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
21.1 Crosses 13.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.97 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
399 Passes 367
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.07.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
20.08.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
16.04.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
20.10.2019 Corinthians Corinthians 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
09.06.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
15.11.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Corinthians 2-1 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
2-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
3.13 xG 0.32
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
327 Passes 431
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 17
7 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians squeezed past Cruzeiro 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Corinthians had 45% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 55%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 3.13 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Corinthians's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Corinthians and 1.33 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Corinthians 2-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 54%, draw 26%, Cruzeiro 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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