Bastia 5-0 Saint Joseph — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.11
Draw
19%
8.78
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
34.5
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
43%
5.6
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
1.47
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 5.6 — our 43% vs market 11.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
28%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
85%
-19.9pp
18%
Draw
8%
+10.0pp
16%
Away Win
6%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint Joseph EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
5-0
AWAY Saint Joseph
4.52 xG 0.01
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 1
15 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 0
498 Passes 190
89% Pass Accuracy 70%
56 Box Touches 4
35 Crosses 2
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Saint Joseph
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia ran out comfortable winners over Saint Joseph 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bastia as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bastia had 68% of the ball to Saint Joseph's 32%, shots finished 21-1, expected goals 4.52 to 0.01.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Saint Joseph?

Bastia 5-0 Saint Joseph in the France - Cup on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Saint Joseph?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Bastia 65%, draw 18%, Saint Joseph 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bastia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bastia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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