Espaly 1-1 Dijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 20 Dec 2024

Espaly
1-1 HT 0-0
Dijon
📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.35
6+ Goals
7%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
18%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
50%
Away Win
58%
-8.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Espaly EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Dijon EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +133%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Espaly
1-1
AWAY Dijon
1.11 xG 0.22
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
219 Passes 379
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Espaly vs Dijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Espaly and Dijon shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dijon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Espaly had 39% of the ball to Dijon's 61%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.11 to 0.22.

What was the final score of Espaly vs Dijon?

Espaly 1-1 Dijon in the France - Cup on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Espaly vs Dijon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dijon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Espaly 25%, draw 25%, Dijon 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dijon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dijon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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