Stranraer 1-1 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 2nd Division, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.66
No
41%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
14%
10.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.1 — our 26% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.0pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stranraer EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 30%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.13/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/2.23
-32% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -37%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stranraer
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
27.09.2025 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-2 HT 0-1 Stranraer Stranraer İK2
20.04.2024 Stranraer Stranraer 0-0 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
05.03.2024 Stranraer Stranraer 5-0 HT 4-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
24.02.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 2-1 HT 2-1 Stranraer Stranraer İK2
30.09.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 3-1 HT 2-1 Stranraer Stranraer İK2
06.05.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-1 HT 1-1 Stranraer Stranraer İK2
POST-MATCH Stranraer vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stranraer and Dumbarton shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Stranraer at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Stranraer and 1.17 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Stranraer vs Dumbarton?

Stranraer 1-1 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 2nd Division on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stranraer vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stranraer win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Stranraer 45%, draw 27%, Dumbarton 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stranraer), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stranraer) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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