Padova Calcio 1-1 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
40%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.6
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.49 — our 36% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.67
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
12%
6.19
X/2
19%
5.27
X/X
15%
3.85
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
15%
3.63
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
38%
+2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.3pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.33/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.32
+9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
247 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
15.0 Crosses 18.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
14.01.2012 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-2 HT 0-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
25.08.2011 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-1
AWAY Sampdoria
0.78 xG 1.13
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
455 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio and Sampdoria shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 64% of the ball to Sampdoria's 36%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.78 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sampdoria led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Padova Calcio and 2.00 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Sampdoria?

Padova Calcio 1-1 Sampdoria in the Italy - Serie B on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 31%, draw 28%, Sampdoria 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sampdoria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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