Frosinone 2-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.57
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
14%
4.67
X/2
13%
8.21
X/X
12%
4.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.0
2/2
12%
6.17
2/X
8%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.54/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.45
-20% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
23.2 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Spezia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.53
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
276 Passes 325
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2025 Frosinone Frosinone 2-2 HT 2-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
24.08.2024 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 0-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
20.08.2020 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
16.08.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
03.07.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
24.11.2019 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
2-1
AWAY Spezia
3.26 xG 0.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
22 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
240 Passes 260
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
38 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone edged past Spezia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Frosinone as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Frosinone had 48% of the ball to Spezia's 52%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 3.26 to 0.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Frosinone's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Frosinone and 1.33 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Spezia?

Frosinone 2-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 43%, draw 27%, Spezia 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frosinone), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Frosinone) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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