Spezia 2-1 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
10%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 31% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.64
X/2
12%
6.65
X/X
16%
4.21
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
11%
5.05
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.43/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.20
-9% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
24.7 Crosses 19.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Frosinone
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2020 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
16.08.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
03.07.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
24.11.2019 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
14.04.2018 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
11.11.2017 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Frosinone
2.64 xG 0.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
260 Passes 235
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia nicked a narrow win over Frosinone 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Spezia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 52% of the ball to Frosinone's 48%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 2.64 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spezia's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Spezia and 0.83 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Frosinone?

Spezia 2-1 Frosinone in the Italy - Serie B on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Spezia 40%, draw 29%, Frosinone 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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