Südtirol 3-2 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
35%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.56
Over 2.5
33%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.05
6+ Goals
8%
30.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 40% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
9%
4.59
X/2
15%
6.34
X/X
18%
3.73
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
10%
5.14
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Draw ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.8pp
35%
Draw
30%
+5.3pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
60%
+6.5pp
33%
Over 2.5
40%
-6.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.4pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Südtirol EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.08/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.13
-17% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
20.2 Crosses 18.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Südtirol
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Salernitana
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
30.09.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 3-0 HT 0-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Südtirol
3-2
AWAY Salernitana
2.99 xG 0.35
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
307 Passes 497
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
33 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Südtirol vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Südtirol nicked a narrow win over Salernitana 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 35% / 31%) promised a tight game; Südtirol found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Südtirol had 40% of the ball to Salernitana's 60%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.99 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Südtirol's control.

What was the final score of Südtirol vs Salernitana?

Südtirol 3-2 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie B on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Südtirol vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Südtirol 34%, draw 35%, Salernitana 31%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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