Frosinone 2-2 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 25 Apr 2025

Frosinone
2-2 HT 2-1
Spezia
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Frosinone vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.61
1/2
5%
25.0
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
10%
7.59
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
4.8
X/X
11%
4.74
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.76
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · X/2 at 4.8 — our 21% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-0.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.9pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 50%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.23/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.26
+12% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
16.1 Crosses 19.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.4

Frosinone vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Spezia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.04 xG 1.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
298 Passes 303
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 0-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
20.08.2020 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
16.08.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
03.07.2020 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
24.11.2019 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
14.04.2018 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB

Frosinone 2-2 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
2-2
AWAY Spezia
1.02 xG 1.38
31% Ball Possession 69%
8 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
163 Passes 435
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone and Spezia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Frosinone had 31% of the ball to Spezia's 69%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 1.02 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Frosinone and 1.17 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Spezia?

Frosinone 2-2 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 29%, draw 25%, Spezia 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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