Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 Schweinfurt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.31
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
20%
4.6
X/2
9%
9.03
X/X
9%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.65
2/2
8%
6.58
2/X
8%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.65 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
52%
+4.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Schweinfurt EU Bookmakers 27%
+20% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
1.74/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.50
-4% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.2 Crosses 11.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
4-0
AWAY Schweinfurt
40% Ball Possession 60%
20 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 7
244 Passes 405
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Schweinfurt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue cruised past Schweinfurt 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 40% of the ball to Schweinfurt's 60%, shots finished 20-18.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Schweinfurt?

Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 Schweinfurt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Schweinfurt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 57%, draw 22%, Schweinfurt 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
20 Dec 2025
16:00 Hansa Rostock vs Saarbrücken Analysis →
16:00 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ulm 1846 Analysis →
16:00 Osnabrück vs Stuttgart II Analysis →
16:00 Waldhof Mannheim vs Ingolstadt Analysis →
18:30 1860 München vs Verl Analysis →