Chaves 0-1 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.08
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 27% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
57%
+2.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
19%
Away Win
19%
-0.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.51/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.68
-14% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.4 Crosses 13.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Portimonense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.44 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
277 Passes 320
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
30.11.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
07.04.2024 Chaves Chaves 2-3 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
11.11.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 2-1 HT 2-0 Chaves Chaves POR
11.03.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
16.09.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
0-1
AWAY Portimonense
2.36 xG 0.87
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
330 Passes 171
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
27 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense nicked a narrow win over Chaves 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Chaves carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chaves had 65% of the ball to Portimonense's 35%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.36 to 0.87 — on chances, Chaves could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chaves and 1.17 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Portimonense?

Chaves 0-1 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Chaves 59%, draw 22%, Portimonense 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
20 Dec 2025
18:30 Vizela vs Academico Viseu Analysis →
18:30 CD Feirense vs Paços De Ferreira Analysis →