Perugia 3-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 21 Jan 2024

Perugia
3-1 HT 0-1
SPAL
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.83
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 29%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.79/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.99
+34% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
2W-4D-0L
AWAY SPAL
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.83 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
214 Passes 310
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-2 Perugia Perugia İTC
30.04.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTB
08.12.2022 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
16.03.2022 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
01.11.2021 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-1 Perugia Perugia İTB
08.08.2018 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
3-1
AWAY SPAL
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Perugia vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia got the better of SPAL 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Perugia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Perugia had 49% of the ball to SPAL's 51%, shots finished 19-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Perugia and 0.67 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Perugia vs SPAL?

Perugia 3-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Perugia 39%, draw 28%, SPAL 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Perugia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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