21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-0
Alcione vs Città di Varese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
38%
4-5
22%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
47%
Home Win
75%
31%
Draw
17%
22%
Away Win
9%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alcione v Città di Varese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Alcione
The Market 79%
Head to Head
AWAY
Città di Varese
The Market 11%
-13% /
-13%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+67%
/
+126%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
58%
Ball Possession
42%
11
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
4
7
Corners
3
489 · 86%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
237 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Alcione vs Città di Varese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Alcione got the better of Città di Varese 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alcione as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Alcione vs Città di Varese?
Alcione 2-0 Città di Varese in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alcione vs Città di Varese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alcione win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Alcione 47%, draw 31%, Città di Varese 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alcione), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Alcione)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024