21/01/2024
·
13:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-0
Ischia vs Sarrabus Ogliastra Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
Over
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No Pick
57%
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
36%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
33%
Home Win
40%
27%
Draw
26%
40%
Away Win
34%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ischia v Sarrabus Ogliastra — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ischia
The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sarrabus Ogliastra
The Market 37%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
6
324 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
303 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Ischia vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ischia edged past Sarrabus Ogliastra 1-0.
Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ischia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Ischia vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Ischia 1-0 Sarrabus Ogliastra in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ischia vs Sarrabus Ogliastra?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sarrabus Ogliastra win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ischia 33%, draw 27%, Sarrabus Ogliastra 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sarrabus Ogliastra) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Sarrabus Ogliastra)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024