21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
1-1
Borgo San Donnino vs Sammaurese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
Over
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
47%
4-5
14%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
37%
Home Win
42%
27%
Draw
29%
36%
Away Win
29%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Borgo San Donnino v Sammaurese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Borgo San Donnino
The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sammaurese
The Market 32%
-54% /
-54%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-50% /
-50%
0.00/2.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/2.00
-100%
/
-47%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-9%
/
-40%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
3
328 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
269 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Borgo San Donnino vs Sammaurese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Borgo San Donnino edged past Sammaurese 2-1.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Borgo San Donnino made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Borgo San Donnino vs Sammaurese?
Borgo San Donnino 2-1 Sammaurese in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Borgo San Donnino vs Sammaurese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Borgo San Donnino win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Borgo San Donnino 37%, draw 27%, Sammaurese 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borgo San Donnino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Borgo San Donnino)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024