21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Matese vs Vigor Senigallia Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
Over
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No Pick
56%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
39%
4-5
28%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
53%
Home Win
85%
21%
Draw
10%
27%
Away Win
5%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Matese v Vigor Senigallia — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Matese
The Market 90%
Head to Head
AWAY
Vigor Senigallia
The Market 8%
-50% /
-50%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+51%
/
-40%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
57%
Ball Possession
43%
14
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
4
516 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
203 · 66%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Matese vs Vigor Senigallia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Matese edged past Vigor Senigallia 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Matese as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.
What was the final score of Matese vs Vigor Senigallia?
Matese 3-2 Vigor Senigallia in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Matese vs Vigor Senigallia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Matese win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Matese 53%, draw 21%, Vigor Senigallia 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matese), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Matese)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024